GOOD MORNING! Treasuries range traded again for most of Thursday. After a couple of weeks of being roiled by the turmoil in the banking sector, the markets are trading with relative calm as contagion fears continue to wane. Treasury prices were the reverse image of stock prices. When stocks moved up, Treasury prices moved down and vice versa. Stocks opened with outsized gains but pared them as the session wore on, given the bond market a late bid. A weaker dollar once again supported commodity prices.
     Coming into the last day of the month, stock prices are up a smidgeon and Treasury prices are down a smidgeon. This comes after the Fed released its balance sheet data for the week ending on March 29. It shows that the central bank’s loans to banks declined. A large decline in discount window borrowings offset an increase in the new Term Bank Funding Program. The markets will likely move more, one way or the other, later today in light of economic data and quarter-end. On the data front are February’s personal income, spending, savings, associated PCE Deflators and the final March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The first report has the most potential to be a market mover, especially the headline and core (excluding food & energy) Deflators. Like Europe’s inflation gauge, the headline should show slowing on lower energy and egg prices. The core is proving more sticky. The markets will react to any variance from the consensus estimates before turning to positioning, re-balancing and window dressing the balance sheets.